Saving for your retirement from TD Synnex isn't always easy, but using your retirement savings wisely can be just as challenging. How much of your savings can you withdraw each year? This is an important question we often receive from many of our TD Synnex clients, and understandably so — withdraw too much and you run the risk of running out of money, but withdraw too little and you may miss out on a comfortable retirement from TD Synnex.
For more than 25 years, the most common guideline has been a rule known as the '4% rule.' This rule suggests that a withdrawal equal to 4% of the initial portfolio value, with annual increases for inflation, is sustainable over a 30-year retirement. This guideline can be helpful for TD Synnex employees in projecting a savings goal and providing a realistic picture of the annual income that their savings might provide. For example, a $1 million portfolio could provide $40,000 of income in the first year with inflation-adjusted withdrawals in succeeding years.
The 4% rule has stimulated a great deal of discussion over the years, with some experts saying 4% is too low and others saying it's too high. Due to the speculation, we find it important for us to analyze both the original and recent research regarding the 4% rule with our clients from TD Synnex. The most recent analysis happens to come from the man who invented it, financial professional William Bengen, who believes the rule has been misunderstood and offers new insights based on new research. Let's see if he's right.
Original research
Bengen first published his findings in 1994, based on analyzing data for retirements from the years 1926 to 1976 — that's 50 years of data. He considered a hypothetical, conservative portfolio comprising 50% large-cap stocks and 50% intermediate-term Treasury bonds held in a tax-advantaged account and rebalanced annually. A 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal was the highest sustainable rate in the worst-case scenario — retirement in October 1968. This was the beginning of a bear market and a long period of high inflation. All other retirement years had higher sustainable rates, some as high as 10% or more.[1]
Of course, no one can predict the future, which is why Bengen suggested the worst-case scenario as a sustainable rate. He later adjusted it slightly upward to 4.5%, based on a more diverse portfolio comprising 30% large-cap stocks, 20% small-cap stocks, and 50% intermediate-term Treasuries.[2]
New research
Now that we have an understanding of Bengen's original research, we'd like to take a look at a more recent analysis with our clients from TD Synnex. In October 2020, Bengen published new research that attempts to project a sustainable withdrawal rate based on two key factors at the time of retirement: stock market valuation and inflation (annual change in the Consumer Price Index). In theory, when the market is expensive, it has less potential to grow, and sustaining increased withdrawals over time may be more difficult. On the other hand, lower inflation means lower inflation-adjusted withdrawals, allowing a higher initial rate. For example, a $40,000 first-year withdrawal becomes an $84,000 withdrawal after 20 years with a 4% annual inflation increase but just $58,000 with a 2% increase.
To measure market valuation, Bengen used the Shiller CAPE, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. The price-earnings (P/E) ratio of a stock is the share price divided by its earnings per share for the previous 12 months. For example, if a stock is priced at $100 and the earnings per share is $4, the P/E ratio would be 25. The Shiller CAPE divides the total share price of stocks in the S&P 500 index by average inflation-adjusted earnings over 10 years.
5% rule?
Bengen once again used historical data, this time, for over 60 years of retirement. Analyzing retirement dates from 1926 to 1990, Bengen found a clear correlation between market valuation and inflation at the time of retirement and the maximum sustainable withdrawal rate. Historically, rates ranged from as low as 4.5% to as high as 13%, but the scenarios that supported high rates were unusual, with very low market valuations and/or deflation rather than inflation.[3]
For the majority of the last 25 years, the United States has experienced high market valuations, and inflation has been low since the Great Recession.[4-5] In a high-valuation, low-inflation scenario at the time of retirement, Bengen found that a 5% initial withdrawal rate was sustainable over 30 years.[6] While not a big difference from the 4% rule, this suggests retirees could make larger initial withdrawals, particularly in a low-inflation environment. But in a high inflation environment withdrawals should decrease.
One caveat is that current market valuation is extremely high: The S&P 500 index had a CAPE of 34.19 at the end of 2020, a level only reached (and exceeded) during the late-1990s dot-com boom and higher than any of the scenarios in Bengen's research.[7] His range for a 5% withdrawal rate is a CAPE of 23 or higher, with inflation between 0% and 2.5%.[8] (Inflation was 1.2% in November 2020.)[9] Bengen's research suggests that if market valuation drops near the historical mean of 16.77, a withdrawal rate of 6% might be sustainable as long as inflation is 5% or lower. On the other hand, if valuation remains high and inflation surpasses 2.5%, the maximum sustainable rate might be 4.5%.[10]
It's important for TD Synnex employees to keep in mind that these projections are based on historical scenarios and a hypothetical portfolio, and there is no guarantee that your portfolio will perform in a similar manner. Also remember that these calculations are based on annual inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and you might choose not to increase withdrawals in some years or use other criteria to make adjustments, such as market performance.
Although there is no assurance that working with a financial professional will improve investment results, a professional can evaluate your objectives and available resources and help you consider appropriate long-term financial strategies, including your withdrawal strategy.
We'd like to remind our clients from TD Synnex that all investments are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. Asset allocation and diversification are methods used to help manage investment risk; they do not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. Rebalancing involves selling some investments in order to buy others; selling investments in a taxable account could result in a tax liability.
The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged group of securities considered representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.
1-2) Forbes Advisor, October 12, 2020
3-4, 6, 8, 10) Financial Advisor, October 2020
5, 9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020
7) multpl.com, December 31, 2020
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What are the key features of the retirement plans offered by TD that differentiate it from other companies in the industry, and how do these features benefit employees nearing retirement? Employees might be interested in understanding the specifics of the defined benefit pension plan, the 401(k) options, and any contributory plans, particularly how TD's offerings can provide financial security in their retirement years.
Key Features of TD Retirement Plans: TD offers an industry-leading, fully bank-paid defined benefit pension plan, particularly for eligible employees with salaries up to the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) or Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) maximum pensionable earnings. For salaries exceeding that threshold, an optional contributory pension plan is available. Additionally, TD provides a 401(k) retirement plan, including a bank contribution between 2% and 6% of pay and a match up to 4.5%, allowing employees to receive up to 10.5% in retirement savings contributions. This combination of pension and 401(k) benefits ensures robust financial security for employees nearing retirement(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).
How can TD employees maximize their pension contributions and benefits to ensure a comfortable retirement, and what steps can they take to optimize their participation in TD's Employee Future Builder Program? This question would help employees understand the importance of planning and how maximizing contributions can lead to enhanced retiree financial security, particularly with the added benefits TD provides.
Maximizing Pension Contributions and Benefits: TD employees can maximize their pension contributions and benefits by fully utilizing both the defined benefit plan and the 401(k) retirement plan. By contributing the maximum amount to the 401(k), employees can take full advantage of TD's matching contributions, significantly boosting their retirement savings. Participation in the Employee Future Builder Program, which encourages saving through payroll deductions and lump sums, can also help employees optimize their retirement outcomes(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).
In what ways does TD support employees’ health and wellness during their employment and into retirement, and how do these initiatives impact overall employee satisfaction and retention? A discussion on the health risks, preventive measures provided by the wellness programs, and the flexibility of benefits can serve as a roadmap for employees to utilize available resources effectively.
Health and Wellness Support: TD promotes employee health and wellness through a comprehensive benefits plan that covers medical, dental, disability, and vision care. Employees also have access to health consultation services and various wellness tools, such as online health risk assessments and on-site wellness services like massages and flu shots. These initiatives support overall employee well-being and contribute to higher satisfaction and retention rates(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).
What options do TD employees have for accessing healthcare benefits in retirement, and how does TD ensure continuity of care for retirees with medical and dental plans? This question should focus on the eligibility criteria, coverage details, and support systems that TD has in place to assist employees transitioning into retirement.
Healthcare Benefits in Retirement: TD provides retiree medical and dental benefits to eligible groups, though some of these plans have been closed to new members in the U.S. Continuity of care is ensured through subsidized coverage, helping retirees manage their healthcare needs as they transition from active employment to retirement(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).
How do the retirement savings plans at TD compare with industry standards in terms of employer contributions and matching programs, and what implications does this have for employees' long-term financial health? Employees would benefit from a comparison that highlights TD's competitive advantages and the potential impact on their retirement savings over time.
Comparison with Industry Standards: TD's retirement savings plans stand out in the industry due to its generous 401(k) matching program, where the bank matches up to 4.5% of employee contributions, alongside a fixed contribution of up to 6%. This level of employer contribution exceeds industry averages, significantly enhancing employees' long-term financial health(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).
What resources are available to TD employees who need assistance navigating their benefits and retirement options, and how can these resources help with decision-making as they approach retirement? This could cover the Employee Assistance Program, financial advisory services, and other tools that help employees make informed decisions regarding their benefits.
Resources for Navigating Benefits: TD offers several resources to help employees navigate their benefits, including financial advisory services through the Employee Assistance Program (EAP) and tools such as the Employee Future Builder Program. These resources help employees make informed decisions about their benefits, particularly as they approach retirement(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).
How does participation in TD's Employee Ownership Plan enhance the financial outlook for employees as they prepare for retirement, and why is this plan an attractive option for them? Employees would want to explore the mechanics of this plan, its benefits, and any strategies for maximizing their contributions.
Employee Ownership Plan: TD’s Employee Ownership Plan allows employees to purchase TD shares with the company matching 100% of the first $250 and 50% of additional contributions, up to a maximum of 3.5% of eligible earnings. This plan enhances employees’ financial security by giving them a stake in the company’s success, which can be an attractive retirement savings strategy(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).
What is the process for TD employees to transition from their current roles to retirement, and what support does TD provide to ensure a smooth transition? Employees might look for details on informational sessions, retirement planning workshops, and personalized support that TD offers to facilitate this important life change.
Transitioning to Retirement: TD supports employees transitioning into retirement through informational resources, such as workshops and planning sessions. Personalized support is available to help employees navigate the various aspects of retirement planning, ensuring a smooth and well-supported transition from work to retirement(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).
How can employees at TD keep informed about changes in retirement benefits and other important updates, and what channels are available for them to receive this information? This relates to the necessity of ongoing communication between TD and its employees about benefits.
Staying Informed About Benefits: TD communicates changes to retirement benefits through various channels, including internal communication platforms and regular updates from the human resources department. Employees can stay informed about important updates by accessing these resources and participating in informational sessions provided by TD(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).
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Contacting TD for Retirement Information: Employees can contact TD directly to learn more about their retirement options through the human resources department or financial advisory services. TD provides dedicated personnel and resources, such as in-person consultations and phone support, to assist employees in retirement planning(TD_Overview_of_Benefits…).