Saving for your retirement from D.R. Horton isn't always easy, but using your retirement savings wisely can be just as challenging. How much of your savings can you withdraw each year? This is an important question we often receive from many of our D.R. Horton clients, and understandably so — withdraw too much and you run the risk of running out of money, but withdraw too little and you may miss out on a comfortable retirement from D.R. Horton.
For more than 25 years, the most common guideline has been a rule known as the '4% rule.' This rule suggests that a withdrawal equal to 4% of the initial portfolio value, with annual increases for inflation, is sustainable over a 30-year retirement. This guideline can be helpful for D.R. Horton employees in projecting a savings goal and providing a realistic picture of the annual income that their savings might provide. For example, a $1 million portfolio could provide $40,000 of income in the first year with inflation-adjusted withdrawals in succeeding years.
The 4% rule has stimulated a great deal of discussion over the years, with some experts saying 4% is too low and others saying it's too high. Due to the speculation, we find it important for us to analyze both the original and recent research regarding the 4% rule with our clients from D.R. Horton. The most recent analysis happens to come from the man who invented it, financial professional William Bengen, who believes the rule has been misunderstood and offers new insights based on new research. Let's see if he's right.
Original research
Bengen first published his findings in 1994, based on analyzing data for retirements from the years 1926 to 1976 — that's 50 years of data. He considered a hypothetical, conservative portfolio comprising 50% large-cap stocks and 50% intermediate-term Treasury bonds held in a tax-advantaged account and rebalanced annually. A 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal was the highest sustainable rate in the worst-case scenario — retirement in October 1968. This was the beginning of a bear market and a long period of high inflation. All other retirement years had higher sustainable rates, some as high as 10% or more.[1]
Of course, no one can predict the future, which is why Bengen suggested the worst-case scenario as a sustainable rate. He later adjusted it slightly upward to 4.5%, based on a more diverse portfolio comprising 30% large-cap stocks, 20% small-cap stocks, and 50% intermediate-term Treasuries.[2]
New research
Now that we have an understanding of Bengen's original research, we'd like to take a look at a more recent analysis with our clients from D.R. Horton. In October 2020, Bengen published new research that attempts to project a sustainable withdrawal rate based on two key factors at the time of retirement: stock market valuation and inflation (annual change in the Consumer Price Index). In theory, when the market is expensive, it has less potential to grow, and sustaining increased withdrawals over time may be more difficult. On the other hand, lower inflation means lower inflation-adjusted withdrawals, allowing a higher initial rate. For example, a $40,000 first-year withdrawal becomes an $84,000 withdrawal after 20 years with a 4% annual inflation increase but just $58,000 with a 2% increase.
To measure market valuation, Bengen used the Shiller CAPE, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. The price-earnings (P/E) ratio of a stock is the share price divided by its earnings per share for the previous 12 months. For example, if a stock is priced at $100 and the earnings per share is $4, the P/E ratio would be 25. The Shiller CAPE divides the total share price of stocks in the S&P 500 index by average inflation-adjusted earnings over 10 years.
5% rule?
Bengen once again used historical data, this time, for over 60 years of retirement. Analyzing retirement dates from 1926 to 1990, Bengen found a clear correlation between market valuation and inflation at the time of retirement and the maximum sustainable withdrawal rate. Historically, rates ranged from as low as 4.5% to as high as 13%, but the scenarios that supported high rates were unusual, with very low market valuations and/or deflation rather than inflation.[3]
For the majority of the last 25 years, the United States has experienced high market valuations, and inflation has been low since the Great Recession.[4-5] In a high-valuation, low-inflation scenario at the time of retirement, Bengen found that a 5% initial withdrawal rate was sustainable over 30 years.[6] While not a big difference from the 4% rule, this suggests retirees could make larger initial withdrawals, particularly in a low-inflation environment. But in a high inflation environment withdrawals should decrease.
One caveat is that current market valuation is extremely high: The S&P 500 index had a CAPE of 34.19 at the end of 2020, a level only reached (and exceeded) during the late-1990s dot-com boom and higher than any of the scenarios in Bengen's research.[7] His range for a 5% withdrawal rate is a CAPE of 23 or higher, with inflation between 0% and 2.5%.[8] (Inflation was 1.2% in November 2020.)[9] Bengen's research suggests that if market valuation drops near the historical mean of 16.77, a withdrawal rate of 6% might be sustainable as long as inflation is 5% or lower. On the other hand, if valuation remains high and inflation surpasses 2.5%, the maximum sustainable rate might be 4.5%.[10]
It's important for D.R. Horton employees to keep in mind that these projections are based on historical scenarios and a hypothetical portfolio, and there is no guarantee that your portfolio will perform in a similar manner. Also remember that these calculations are based on annual inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and you might choose not to increase withdrawals in some years or use other criteria to make adjustments, such as market performance.
Although there is no assurance that working with a financial professional will improve investment results, a professional can evaluate your objectives and available resources and help you consider appropriate long-term financial strategies, including your withdrawal strategy.
We'd like to remind our clients from D.R. Horton that all investments are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. Asset allocation and diversification are methods used to help manage investment risk; they do not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. Rebalancing involves selling some investments in order to buy others; selling investments in a taxable account could result in a tax liability.
The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged group of securities considered representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.
1-2) Forbes Advisor, October 12, 2020
3-4, 6, 8, 10) Financial Advisor, October 2020
5, 9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020
7) multpl.com, December 31, 2020
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An FLP is subject to more restrictive rules than other forms of business entities. Care must be taken to create a valid FLP in the eyes of the state and the IRS. An FLP will be recognized only if it is formed for a valid business purpose. The FLP form will be disregarded if the IRS or the state finds that it was formed solely to avoid taxes.
Some specific purposes for creating an FLP include:
- To adopt a family succession plan
- To simplify annual gifting by the senior generation
- To minimize income, gift, and estate taxes
- To protect assets from potential creditors
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- To consolidate assets into a single entity
- To keep the business in the family
- To decrease estate and probate costs
Additionally, an FLP may own a closely held business (other than a corporation that has made an election to be taxed as an 'S' corporation), real estate, marketable securities, or almost any other investment asset. Homes, cottages, or other personal use assets are normally not suitable for an FLP.
Tips For Forming And Maintaining A Valid FLP:
- Have one or more substantial nontax purposes for creating the FLP, such as asset protection
- Keep good records
- Create the FLP while you're still in good health
- Observe all legal formalities when creating the FLP and while operating the business
- Hire an independent appraiser to value assets going into the FLP
- Transfer legal title of assets going into the FLP
- Put only business assets into the FLP — don't put any personal assets into the FLP
- If you do put personal assets into the FLP, such as your home, pay fair market rent for their use
- Don't commingle FLP assets and personal assets — keep them separate
- Never use FLP assets for personal purposes
- Keep enough assets outside the FLP to pay for personal expenses
- Distribute income to partners pro rata
What type of retirement plan does D.R. Horton offer to its employees?
D.R. Horton offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to its employees.
Is there a company match for contributions made to the D.R. Horton 401(k) plan?
Yes, D.R. Horton provides a company match for employee contributions to the 401(k) plan, subject to certain limits.
How can employees enroll in the D.R. Horton 401(k) plan?
Employees can enroll in the D.R. Horton 401(k) plan through the company’s benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.
What is the eligibility requirement for D.R. Horton employees to participate in the 401(k) plan?
Generally, D.R. Horton employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a specified period of service, as outlined in the plan documents.
Can D.R. Horton employees take loans against their 401(k) savings?
Yes, D.R. Horton allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to the plan's terms and conditions.
What investment options are available in the D.R. Horton 401(k) plan?
The D.R. Horton 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles.
How often can D.R. Horton employees change their 401(k) contribution amounts?
D.R. Horton employees can change their 401(k) contribution amounts at designated times throughout the year, as specified in the plan rules.
What is the vesting schedule for D.R. Horton’s company match in the 401(k) plan?
The vesting schedule for D.R. Horton’s company match typically follows a graded vesting schedule, which means employees earn ownership of the match over time.
Are there any fees associated with managing the D.R. Horton 401(k) plan?
Yes, there may be fees associated with managing the D.R. Horton 401(k) plan, which are disclosed in the plan documents and annual statements.
How can D.R. Horton employees access their 401(k) account information?
D.R. Horton employees can access their 401(k) account information online through the plan’s designated website or by contacting the plan administrator.