Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research.
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The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months.
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To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.
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Strong Employment
Over the last few months, economic data has been mixed. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation, but bounced back in June.
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Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month.
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The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment).
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The unemployment rate has been 3.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969.
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Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows.
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In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points.
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Negative GDP Growth
One common definition of a recession is a decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, and the current situation meets that criterion. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter.
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Because GDP is reported on a quarterly basis, the NBER committee cannot use it to measure monthly economic activity, but the committee does look at it for defining recessions more broadly.
Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. However, the current situation could be an exception, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data.
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Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter.
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Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in consumer spending, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories.
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Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, it's too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels.
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Economists may not know whether the economy is contracting until there is additional monthly data.
The Inflation Factor
With employment at such high levels, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. However, it's important for The Boeing Company employees to keep in consideration that the employment market could change, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.
The fear factor is inflation, which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981.
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Wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, making many consumers more cautious despite the strong job market.
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If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already underway.
Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.75% increases in June and July.
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It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the economy, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a 'soft landing' or a more jarring stop that throws the economy into a recession.
No one has a crystal ball, and economists' projections range widely, from a remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023.
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If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, it's important for The Boeing Company employees and retirees to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months.
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To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.
Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.
1) Investor's Business Daily, July 12, 2022
2) The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2022
3–5) National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
7) Reuters, July 15, 2022
8–9, 17–18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
10) The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2022
11) The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2022
13–14) MarketWatch, July 5, 2022
16) The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2022
19) Federal Reserve, 2022
20) The New York Times, July 1, 2022
Tags: Financial Planning , Gas , Mileage , IRS
How does the Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan (VIP) integrate with other retirement plans offered by Boeing Company, and what specific changes have been made recently to enhance retirement benefits for employees? Discuss the implications these changes might have on employees planning their retirement.
The Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan (VIP) integrates with other Boeing retirement plans, such as the Boeing Pension Value Plan and other defined benefit plans. Recently, changes like the addition of a Roth contribution option and a shift toward enhanced defined contributions have been made to improve benefits for certain employees, particularly those who previously participated in both defined benefit and defined contribution plans. These changes enhance retirement planning flexibility but may require employees to adjust their strategies depending on their long-term financial goals.
What are the key eligibility requirements for participation in the Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan, and how do these requirements align with industry standards for retirement plans within large corporations? Specifically, address how the eligibility criteria impact various groups of employees within Boeing Company.
Key eligibility requirements for the Boeing VIP include no minimum age or service requirements, though certain groups, such as union employees and non-resident aliens, may be excluded. These criteria align with industry standards, making the plan accessible to a broad range of employees. The inclusivity of eligibility supports employees at various career stages, though exclusions may affect unionized employees or contractors differently from their non-union counterparts(Boeing_Voluntary_Invest…).
In what ways does the Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan support employees who wish to make catch-up contributions, particularly for those nearing retirement age? Examine the financial benefits and potential challenges associated with these contributions for Boeing employees.
Boeing VIP allows catch-up contributions for employees aged 50 and over, aligning with IRS guidelines for retirement savings. This option benefits employees nearing retirement by enabling them to contribute more toward their savings. However, the increased financial burden of larger contributions could pose a challenge for employees with tighter budgets, potentially limiting their ability to maximize catch-up contributions(Boeing_Voluntary_Invest…).
How does the investment allocation strategy within the Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan reflect the principles of risk management and diversification? Evaluate the types of investment options available and their relevance for Boeing employees planning for retirement.
The investment strategy of Boeing VIP emphasizes risk management and diversification, offering a wide range of options, including lifecycle funds, index funds, and company stock. These choices provide flexibility for employees with varying risk tolerances, helping them manage retirement savings effectively. The availability of different fund types ensures that employees can align their investment choices with their retirement timelines and risk preferences(Boeing_Voluntary_Invest…).
What options does the Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan provide for loans and withdrawals, and how do these options affect employees’ financial planning? Analyze the conditions under which Boeing employees can access their funds and the implications of these conditions on long-term retirement savings.
Boeing VIP offers loans and withdrawal options, including hardship withdrawals and in-service distributions at age 59½. These features provide flexibility in accessing retirement funds but come with conditions that could affect long-term savings. For example, taking a loan or withdrawal may reduce the funds available for retirement and may lead to penalties, making it important for employees to carefully consider the implications before accessing their funds(Boeing_Voluntary_Invest…).
How can Boeing employees effectively utilize the resources available through the Boeing Retirement Service Center to optimize their retirement planning? Discuss the types of support services provided and how they can aid employees in making informed decisions regarding their retirement benefits.
Boeing employees can utilize resources through the Boeing Retirement Service Center, which provides support for retirement planning. The center offers tools, counseling, and online resources to help employees understand their options and optimize their benefits. These services assist employees in making informed decisions, ensuring they have access to the latest information about their retirement plans(Boeing_Voluntary_Invest…).
In what ways does the Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan facilitate automatic enrollment and escalation for employees? Assess the impact of these features on employee participation rates and retirement savings at Boeing Company.
Automatic enrollment and escalation features in the Boeing VIP encourage higher participation rates and increased savings. Employees are automatically enrolled at 4% pre-tax contributions, with an option for annual increases of 1% up to 8%. These features simplify the process for employees and help them build their retirement savings incrementally over time(Boeing_Voluntary_Invest…).
How does Boeing Company ensure that its pension and retirement plans remain compliant with current IRS regulations and requirements? Discuss the importance of ongoing compliance audits and employee education in maintaining the integrity of the Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan.
Boeing ensures compliance with IRS regulations by regularly updating its plans and conducting compliance audits. Maintaining adherence to regulations is essential for protecting the plan's tax-qualified status, and Boeing also focuses on employee education to ensure they understand the requirements and benefits of the plan(Boeing_Voluntary_Invest…).
What steps should Boeing employees take if they have questions or seek more information about the Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan? Outline the available channels for communication and the types of inquiries that can be directed to Boeing's human resources department.
Boeing employees with questions about the VIP can contact the Boeing Retirement Service Center or their human resources department. These channels provide assistance with inquiries related to plan features, contributions, and withdrawals, offering personalized guidance to help employees manage their retirement planning effectively(Boeing_Voluntary_Invest…).
How does the recent shift from traditional defined-benefit pensions to a defined-contribution model, as seen in the Boeing Voluntary Investment Plan, influence the financial security of future retirees from Boeing? Explore the long-term effects this transition may have on employee savings behavior and retirement readiness.
The shift from traditional defined-benefit pensions to a defined-contribution model, like the Boeing VIP, changes the way employees plan for retirement. Employees are now more responsible for managing their own investments and savings, which may lead to varying levels of financial security depending on their decisions. This transition emphasizes the need for employees to be more proactive in their retirement planning to ensure they meet their long-term financial goals(Boeing_Voluntary_Invest…).
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