Is the U.S. Economy in a Recession?

In an early July poll, 58% of Americans said they thought the U.S. economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May. ¹ Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The current situation is unusual, and there is little consensus among economists as to whether a recession has begun or may be coming soon. ²

Considering the high level of public concern, it may be helpful for Farmers Insurance Group employees and retirees to look at how a recession is officially determined and some current indicators that suggest strength or weakness in the U.S. economy.

Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research. ³

The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months. ⁴

To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced. ⁵

Strong Employment
Over the last few months, economic data has been mixed. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation, but bounced back in June. ⁶ Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month. ⁷ The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment). ⁸

The unemployment rate has been 3.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969. ⁹ Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows. ¹⁰ In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points. ¹¹

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Negative GDP Growth
One common definition of a recession is a decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, and the current situation meets that criterion. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter. ¹² Because GDP is reported on a quarterly basis, the NBER committee cannot use it to measure monthly economic activity, but the committee does look at it for defining recessions more broadly.

Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. However, the current situation could be an exception, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data. ¹³

Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter. ¹⁴

Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in consumer spending, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories. ¹⁵ Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, it's too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels. ¹⁶ Economists may not know whether the economy is contracting until there is additional monthly data.

The Inflation Factor
With employment at such high levels, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. However, it's important for Farmers Insurance Group employees to keep in consideration that the employment market could change, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.

The fear factor is inflation, which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981. ¹⁷ Wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, making many consumers more cautious despite the strong job market. ¹⁸ If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already underway.

Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.75% increases in June and July. ¹⁹ It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the economy, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a 'soft landing' or a more jarring stop that throws the economy into a recession.

No one has a crystal ball, and economists' projections range widely, from a remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023. ²⁰ If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, it's important for Farmers Insurance Group employees and retirees to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months. ²¹ To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.

Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1) Investor's Business Daily, July 12, 2022
2) The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2022
3–5) National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
7) Reuters, July 15, 2022
8–9, 17–18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
10) The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2022
11) The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2022
13–14) MarketWatch, July 5, 2022
16) The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2022
19) Federal Reserve, 2022
20) The New York Times, July 1, 2022

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What is the 401(k) plan offered by Farmers Insurance Group?

The 401(k) plan at Farmers Insurance Group is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their paycheck before taxes are taken out.

How does Farmers Insurance Group match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Farmers Insurance Group offers a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which typically matches a percentage of the employee's contributions, up to a certain limit.

What are the eligibility requirements for the 401(k) plan at Farmers Insurance Group?

Employees of Farmers Insurance Group are generally eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a certain period of employment, usually within the first year.

Can employees of Farmers Insurance Group make changes to their 401(k) contributions?

Yes, employees of Farmers Insurance Group can change their contribution amounts at any time, subject to certain plan rules.

What investment options are available in the Farmers Insurance Group 401(k) plan?

The Farmers Insurance Group 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, stocks, and bonds, allowing employees to tailor their investment strategy.

Is there a vesting schedule for the employer match in the Farmers Insurance Group 401(k) plan?

Yes, the Farmers Insurance Group 401(k) plan has a vesting schedule that determines how much of the employer match employees can keep if they leave the company.

How can employees at Farmers Insurance Group access their 401(k) account information?

Employees can access their 401(k) account information through the Farmers Insurance Group employee portal or by contacting the plan administrator.

What happens to the 401(k) savings if an employee leaves Farmers Insurance Group?

If an employee leaves Farmers Insurance Group, they can roll over their 401(k) savings into another retirement account, withdraw the funds, or leave the savings in the Farmers Insurance Group plan if allowed.

Can employees of Farmers Insurance Group take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, the Farmers Insurance Group 401(k) plan may allow employees to take loans against their savings, subject to specific terms and conditions.

Are there penalties for withdrawing funds from the Farmers Insurance Group 401(k) plan before retirement age?

Yes, early withdrawals from the Farmers Insurance Group 401(k) plan may incur penalties and taxes unless certain exceptions apply.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Farmers Insurance Group provides a defined contribution 401(k) plan with company matching contributions. Employees can contribute pre-tax or Roth (after-tax) dollars, and Farmers matches a percentage of eligible compensation. The plan includes various investment options, such as target-date funds and mutual funds. Farmers provides financial planning resources and tools to help employees manage their retirement savings.

Farmers Insurance Group has been undergoing restructuring and layoffs to address financial and operational challenges. In 2023, the company announced layoffs affecting around 11% of its workforce, impacting various roles across the organization. The layoffs are part of Farmers' efforts to streamline operations, reduce costs, and focus on core business areas. The company is also making changes to its benefits and pension plans to ensure sustainability and support long-term strategic goals. These measures are necessary to navigate the current economic environment and remain competitive in the insurance market.

Farmers Insurance Group grants RSUs that vest over time, providing shares upon vesting. Stock options are also available, enabling employees to purchase shares at a fixed price.

Farmers Insurance Group has made significant changes to its employee healthcare benefits over the past few years, addressing the evolving economic, investment, tax, and political climate. In 2023 and 2024, employees have reported a notable increase in healthcare plan costs, with some plans experiencing a 30% rise. This increase is accompanied by higher deductibles, impacting the affordability of healthcare for many employees. Despite these challenges, Farmers Insurance Group continues to offer comprehensive health coverage, including medical, dental, and vision insurance, alongside wellness programs to support employee health and wellbeing (Reddit). These adjustments in Farmers Insurance Group's healthcare benefits reflect the broader trends in the corporate sector, where rising healthcare costs and economic pressures necessitate changes in employee benefits packages. By maintaining robust healthcare offerings, Farmers aims to attract and retain top talent, recognizing the critical role of health benefits in employee satisfaction and productivity. Discussing healthcare benefits is particularly pertinent now, as companies navigate the complexities of economic uncertainty and legislative changes affecting healthcare policies (Reddit).