Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research.
3
The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months.
4
To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.
5
Strong Employment
Over the last few months, economic data has been mixed. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation, but bounced back in June.
6
Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month.
7
The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment).
8
The unemployment rate has been 3.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969.
9
Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows.
10
In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points.
11
Featured Video
Articles you may find interesting:
- Corporate Employees: 8 Factors When Choosing a Mutual Fund
- Use of Escrow Accounts: Divorce
- Medicare Open Enrollment for Corporate Employees: Cost Changes in 2024!
- Stages of Retirement for Corporate Employees
- 7 Things to Consider Before Leaving Your Company
- How Are Workers Impacted by Inflation & Rising Interest Rates?
- Lump-Sum vs Annuity and Rising Interest Rates
- Internal Revenue Code Section 409A (Governing Nonqualified Deferred Compensation Plans)
- Corporate Employees: Do NOT Believe These 6 Retirement Myths!
- 401K, Social Security, Pension – How to Maximize Your Options
- Have You Looked at Your 401(k) Plan Recently?
- 11 Questions You Should Ask Yourself When Planning for Retirement
- Worst Month of Layoffs In Over a Year!
- Corporate Employees: 8 Factors When Choosing a Mutual Fund
- Use of Escrow Accounts: Divorce
- Medicare Open Enrollment for Corporate Employees: Cost Changes in 2024!
- Stages of Retirement for Corporate Employees
- 7 Things to Consider Before Leaving Your Company
- How Are Workers Impacted by Inflation & Rising Interest Rates?
- Lump-Sum vs Annuity and Rising Interest Rates
- Internal Revenue Code Section 409A (Governing Nonqualified Deferred Compensation Plans)
- Corporate Employees: Do NOT Believe These 6 Retirement Myths!
- 401K, Social Security, Pension – How to Maximize Your Options
- Have You Looked at Your 401(k) Plan Recently?
- 11 Questions You Should Ask Yourself When Planning for Retirement
- Worst Month of Layoffs In Over a Year!
Negative GDP Growth
One common definition of a recession is a decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, and the current situation meets that criterion. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter.
12
Because GDP is reported on a quarterly basis, the NBER committee cannot use it to measure monthly economic activity, but the committee does look at it for defining recessions more broadly.
Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. However, the current situation could be an exception, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data.
13
Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter.
14
Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in consumer spending, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories.
15
Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, it's too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels.
16
Economists may not know whether the economy is contracting until there is additional monthly data.
The Inflation Factor
With employment at such high levels, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. However, it's important for ExxonMobil employees to keep in consideration that the employment market could change, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.
The fear factor is inflation, which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981.
17
Wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, making many consumers more cautious despite the strong job market.
18
If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already underway.
Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.75% increases in June and July.
19
It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the economy, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a 'soft landing' or a more jarring stop that throws the economy into a recession.
No one has a crystal ball, and economists' projections range widely, from a remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023.
20
If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, it's important for ExxonMobil employees and retirees to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months.
21
To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.
Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.
1) Investor's Business Daily, July 12, 2022
2) The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2022
3–5) National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
7) Reuters, July 15, 2022
8–9, 17–18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
10) The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2022
11) The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2022
13–14) MarketWatch, July 5, 2022
16) The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2022
19) Federal Reserve, 2022
20) The New York Times, July 1, 2022
Tags: Financial Planning , Gas , Mileage , IRS
How does the ExxonMobil Savings Plan compare against typical retirement savings plans, and what unique features does it offer that can benefit employees approaching retirement? Additionally, can you elaborate on the necessary steps ExxonMobil employees should take within the savings plan to ensure maximum contributions and employer match during their service years?
ExxonMobil Savings Plan: ExxonMobil's Savings Plan offers flexibility with pre-tax, after-tax, and Roth contributions, and features a 7% company match for the first 6% of employee contributions, a unique benefit compared to typical plans. Employees should contribute the maximum percentage to receive the full match and regularly review their investment allocations through the Voya platform(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
What are the eligibility criteria for employees to participate in the ExxonMobil Pension Plan, and how is the retirement benefit calculated? As employees consider their long-term savings strategy, how does the option of a lump-sum distribution versus an annuity influence their financial planning at ExxonMobil?
ExxonMobil Pension Plan: Employees are automatically enrolled and eligible for benefits after five years of service, with full retirement benefits offered at 55 with 15 years of service. The pension is calculated based on 1.6% of final average pay multiplied by years of service, minus a social security offset. Lump-sum and annuity options affect long-term financial planning, with lump sums offering immediate flexibility while annuities provide a steady income(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
In what ways does the ExxonMobil Employee Assistance Program (EAP) support employees during personal or family crises, and what confidentiality measures are in place to protect their privacy? Additionally, how can ExxonMobil employees access these services, and what are the key resources available through this program?
Employee Assistance Program (EAP): ExxonMobil's EAP provides confidential counseling services for personal and family issues like anxiety, addiction, and family conflict. Services are accessible by phone, video chat, or text, with privacy strictly protected. Employees can contact ComPsych for guidance and support through the GuidanceNow app or website(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
With the introduction of Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) at ExxonMobil, how do these accounts help employees manage their health care and dependent care expenses more effectively? What guidelines should employees follow to ensure they maximize their tax advantages while complying with IRS regulations during the enrollment process?
Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs): FSAs at ExxonMobil allow employees to reduce taxable income by contributing pre-tax dollars to healthcare or dependent care expenses. Employees should estimate their expenses carefully during the enrollment period and comply with IRS rules, ensuring they submit claims by April 15th of the following year(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
How does ExxonMobil define "work-life balance," and what specific benefits and programs are in place to support this philosophy for employees? Can you discuss how employees can utilize these options, such as flexible schedules and leave of absence policies, without negatively impacting their career progression within the company?
Work-Life Balance: ExxonMobil promotes work-life balance with programs like “Flex Your Day,” allowing flexibility in work hours, and up to 20 days of back-up dependent care. Employees are encouraged to use these options strategically to maintain career progression while balancing personal obligations(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
In light of the various medical plan options offered at ExxonMobil, how should employees approach selecting the right plan to best meet their healthcare needs? What factors should they consider, including family health history and financial implications, when making their decisions?
Medical Plan Selection: ExxonMobil offers Aetna POS II and network-only options, allowing employees to choose between plans based on cost, coverage, and provider access. Employees should assess their family's healthcare needs, financial situation, and preferred providers when selecting the most appropriate plan(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
For ExxonMobil employees nearing retirement, what resources are available to help them understand the nuances of health benefits coordination through Medicare and their ExxonMobil coverage? How can they best navigate this transition, and what checkpoints should they be aware of to ensure they remain compliant with company policies during retirement?
Retirement Health Benefits and Medicare: ExxonMobil offers resources to help employees coordinate health benefits with Medicare upon retirement. Employees nearing retirement should explore their options through the Your Total Rewards portal and ensure compliance with company policies during the transition(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
What financial education resources does ExxonMobil provide to employees to promote informed decision-making about their retirement savings and benefits? Can you detail how programs like the Financial Fitness Program enable employees to strategically manage their finances and plan for retirement?
Financial Education Resources: ExxonMobil's Financial Fitness Program, provided in collaboration with Ernst & Young, helps employees manage their finances with resources such as EY Navigate and personalized financial planning. This program supports informed decision-making about retirement and savings strategies(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
As part of the benefits provided by ExxonMobil, how does the company facilitate employee participation in volunteer programs and charitable activities through the ExxonMobil Foundation? How can employees engage with these initiatives while also balancing their work commitments?
Volunteer Programs: Through the ExxonMobil Foundation, employees can engage in charitable activities via the Volunteer Involvement Program (VIP), which offers grants to nonprofits based on time spent volunteering. Participation in these programs is flexible, enabling employees to balance work commitments with volunteer efforts(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
How can ExxonMobil employees get in touch with benefits representatives to address specific questions about their retirement and savings plans? What are the recommended channels and best times to reach out for assistance to ensure they receive timely and relevant information about their options?
Contacting Benefits Representatives: Employees can reach out to the ExxonMobil Benefits Service Center at 833-776-9966 during business hours (8 a.m. to 4 p.m. CST) for assistance with retirement and savings plan questions. The Your Total Rewards portal also offers 24/7 access for reviewing and managing benefits(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).
-2.png)
.webp)