Is the U.S. Economy in a Recession?

In an early July poll, 58% of Americans said they thought the U.S. economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May. ¹ Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The current situation is unusual, and there is little consensus among economists as to whether a recession has begun or may be coming soon. ²

Considering the high level of public concern, it may be helpful for Abbott Laboratories employees and retirees to look at how a recession is officially determined and some current indicators that suggest strength or weakness in the U.S. economy.

Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research. ³

The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months. ⁴

To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced. ⁵

Strong Employment
Over the last few months, economic data has been mixed. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation, but bounced back in June. ⁶ Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month. ⁷ The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment). ⁸

The unemployment rate has been 3.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969. ⁹ Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows. ¹⁰ In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points. ¹¹

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Negative GDP Growth
One common definition of a recession is a decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, and the current situation meets that criterion. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter. ¹² Because GDP is reported on a quarterly basis, the NBER committee cannot use it to measure monthly economic activity, but the committee does look at it for defining recessions more broadly.

Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. However, the current situation could be an exception, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data. ¹³

Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter. ¹⁴

Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in consumer spending, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories. ¹⁵ Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, it's too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels. ¹⁶ Economists may not know whether the economy is contracting until there is additional monthly data.

The Inflation Factor
With employment at such high levels, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. However, it's important for Abbott Laboratories employees to keep in consideration that the employment market could change, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.

The fear factor is inflation, which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981. ¹⁷ Wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, making many consumers more cautious despite the strong job market. ¹⁸ If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already underway.

Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.75% increases in June and July. ¹⁹ It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the economy, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a 'soft landing' or a more jarring stop that throws the economy into a recession.

No one has a crystal ball, and economists' projections range widely, from a remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023. ²⁰ If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, it's important for Abbott Laboratories employees and retirees to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months. ²¹ To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.

Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1) Investor's Business Daily, July 12, 2022
2) The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2022
3–5) National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
7) Reuters, July 15, 2022
8–9, 17–18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
10) The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2022
11) The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2022
13–14) MarketWatch, July 5, 2022
16) The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2022
19) Federal Reserve, 2022
20) The New York Times, July 1, 2022

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How does the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan (ARP) determine the eligibility requirements for employees, and how can potential changes in federal regulations impact these requirements? Employees of Abbott Laboratories may need to understand the nuances of eligibility, particularly regarding age and service criteria. Changes in laws governing retirement benefits could pose questions about continued eligibility and could affect when employees can begin pension payments.

Eligibility Requirements & Impact of Federal Regulations: Employees at Abbott Laboratories become eligible for the ARP by being part of a participating division, being at least 21 years old, and residing in the U.S. (with certain exceptions for U.S. employees abroad). Changes in federal regulations could potentially alter these eligibility criteria, especially since such rules often influence age and service requirements for retirement plans. Any changes in legislation regarding retirement benefits might necessitate adjustments in eligibility rules, affecting when employees can begin receiving pension payments.

Can you explain the significance of Vesting Service in the context of the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan? Employees often wonder how their years of service influence their benefit eligibility and the amount they can expect. Understanding the elements that constitute Vesting Service, and the implications of terminating employment before achieving vesting, is crucial for Abbott Laboratories employees planning for retirement.

Significance of Vesting Service: Vesting Service at Abbott Laboratories refers to the time an employee must accumulate to gain entitlement to pension benefits, irrespective of continued employment. This service is critical as it determines the security of an employee's future benefits and the degree of an employee's investment in the company's pension plan. Employees who terminate employment prior to achieving full vesting lose entitlement to accrued pension benefits, making understanding and accruing Vesting Service essential for long-term financial planning.

In what ways does the calculation of Final Average Pay play a role in determining retirement benefits under the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan? The methodology used to calculate an employee's Final Average Pay can significantly impact the retirement income they receive. Employees at Abbott Laboratories should consider how their earnings history and the inclusion or exclusion of certain payments factor into their anticipated benefits.

Role of Final Average Pay in Benefit Calculation: Final Average Pay (FAP) is crucial in determining the pension benefits under the ARP as it represents the average of an employee’s highest earnings over a specified period. Abbott’s ARP calculates pension based on a percentage of the FAP, multiplied by years of eligible service. This calculation means that higher earnings towards the end of an employee's career can significantly increase the pension benefits, incentivizing employees to maximize their earnings potential in their final working years.

What optional forms of payment are available to employees upon retirement under the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan, and how do these choices affect overall pension benefits? Abbott Laboratories employees need to evaluate whether to choose single or joint survivor annuities, among other options, as these decisions can have long-term financial implications for both themselves and their beneficiaries.

Optional Forms of Payment at Retirement: The ARP offers various payment options upon retirement, including single and joint survivor annuities, which affect the benefit's distribution and longevity. These choices impact financial planning for retirement, particularly in ensuring that a spouse or beneficiary may continue to receive benefits after the retiree's death. The selection between these options should align with personal financial needs and considerations for dependents' security.

Different employees may have varying perspectives on the importance of early retirement options offered by Abbott Laboratories. What are the qualifications for early special retirement, and how does this option affect retirement income? Employees contemplating retirement before the standard age should understand how factors such as age, years of service, and the specific provisions of the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan influence their benefits.

Early Retirement Qualifications and Impacts: Early retirement under the ARP is available to employees who meet specific age and service criteria, allowing them to retire with reduced benefits before reaching the normal retirement age. This option can significantly affect retirement income, depending on the number of years ahead of normal retirement age the employee chooses to retire, making it crucial for employees to understand the financial trade-offs involved in retiring early.

How does the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan ensure compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), and what rights do employees have under this act? Abbott Laboratories employees should be informed about their rights regarding plan documentation, required disclosures, and recourse in the event of disputes pertaining to their retirement benefits.

ARP Compliance with ERISA: The ARP is designed to comply with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), providing employees with rights to information about plan features and funding, benefits accrual, and recourse in case of disputes. Compliance with ERISA ensures that employees' retirement benefits are protected under federal law, offering a framework for security and transparency in their retirement planning.

How do Abbott Laboratories employees who experience a medical leave of absence or disability maintain their retirement service credits under the Annuity Retirement Plan? Understanding the interaction between long-term disability benefits, medical leave, and retirement plan participation is essential for employees navigating health-related issues while planning for their retirement.

Impact of Medical Leave or Disability on Retirement Credits: Employees on medical leave or disability continue to accrue service credits under the ARP, ensuring that such periods do not adversely affect their pension benefits. This protection helps employees who are temporarily unable to work due to health issues maintain their trajectory towards earning full retirement benefits.

Given the potential for changes to the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan, how can employees stay informed about their rights and any modifications to the planâ€™s terms? Employees at Abbott Laboratories should have access to reliable communication channels, including how to receive updates about the retirement plan, which could impact their financial planning.

Staying Informed About Plan Changes: Employees can stay informed about changes to the ARP through regular communications from Abbott Laboratories, access to updated plan documents, and direct inquiries to the Abbott Benefits Center. Staying proactive in seeking information and understanding the implications of plan modifications is essential for effective retirement planning.

What processes should Abbott Laboratories employees follow if they wish to obtain a statement regarding their entitlement to a pension? Employees looking to plan for retirement need clear instructions on how to request this crucial information and understand its importance in their long-term financial strategy.

Obtaining a Pension Statement: Employees wishing to obtain a statement of their pension entitlements under the ARP should contact the Abbott Benefits Center. Clear instructions on how to request this information are crucial for employees to plan accurately for retirement and understand their accrued benefits.

If an employee at Abbott Laboratories has further questions about the Annuity Retirement Plan or requires clarification on the document contents, how can they effectively contact the appropriate department? Knowing how to reach out to Abbott Laboratories' Benefits Center regarding retirement plan inquiries is vital for all employees wanting to confirm their understanding or seek additional information about their retirement benefits.

Contacting the Appropriate Department for Plan Inquiries: For further inquiries or clarification regarding the ARP, employees should contact the Abbott Benefits Center. Knowing the correct contact information and how to reach out effectively is vital for resolving concerns and gaining a deeper understanding of their retirement benefits.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Abbott Laboratories offers an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) that allows employees to purchase company stock at a discounted price through automatic payroll deductions. This plan operates in two periods: an "offering period" where payroll deductions accumulate, and a "purchase period" where those deductions are used to buy Abbott/AbbVie stock. The ESPP is a qualified plan, meaning contributions are made on a pre-tax basis, allowing for tax-deferred growth. Employees can benefit from lower taxes on gains if they hold the stock for at least one year and sell it at least two years after the offering date. This plan helps employees benefit from the company's performance while also providing tax savings. 401(k) Plan - Stock Retirement Plan (SRP) Abbott's 401(k) plan, known as the Stock Retirement Plan (SRP), provides a significant company match. Employees who contribute 2% of their gross pay receive a 5% company match. In 2022, employees can contribute up to $20,500 annually ($27,000 if over age 50), with employer and employee contributions capped at a combined $61,000 ($67,500 if over 50). Contributions are automatically deducted from paychecks, deferring taxes until retirement when the employee might be in a lower tax bracket. Additionally, Abbott’s Freedom 2 Save program automatically contributes up to 5% of an employee’s gross salary to the SRP plan if the employee contributes at least 2% of their income to student loan repayment. This generous matching scheme and additional programs can help employees build substantial retirement savings over time. [Source: Abbott Benefits Guide, 2022, p. 10]

Abbott Laboratories has announced significant layoffs in 2024, including the closure of its Fairfield plant, which will result in nearly 200 job losses due to cost-cutting measures. This comes amidst a broader trend of job cuts in their medtech and diagnostic divisions, particularly as demand for COVID-19 tests diminishes. Additionally, Abbott is cutting 3,000 jobs globally as part of a restructuring effort to streamline operations and improve efficiencies. This news is critical for stakeholders to understand the economic and political pressures influencing these decisions, including rising inflation, shifts in demand for healthcare products, and strategic moves to maintain financial stability in a volatile market (Hoodline) (MedTech Dive) (FierceBiotech) (FiercePharma) (Press Herald).

Abbott Laboratories offers stock options and RSUs to align employee interests with company goals. Stock options are granted with a predetermined price and vesting period, while RSUs vest over a few years based on performance or tenure. In 2022, Abbott enhanced its equity programs, emphasizing performance-based RSUs. The trend continued in 2023 and 2024, with broader RSU availability and performance-linked stock options. Executives and middle management are the primary recipients, fostering long-term alignment with company performance. [Source: Abbott Annual Reports 2022-2024, p. 34] Abbott’s RSU program provides employees with shares of company stock subject to a vesting schedule based on performance milestones or years of service. Once vested, RSUs convert to stock, and their fair market value is taxed as ordinary income. Proper tax planning around RSUs is crucial to minimize tax liability, as vesting can significantly impact income and tax brackets. Employees need to decide whether to hold or sell the stock after it becomes available, considering that selling within one year of conversion results in higher tax rates compared to long-term capital gains rates for stock held for more than a year. Integrating RSUs into a comprehensive wealth management plan is essential for maximizing their benefits.