Interest rates are a key driver of most financial assets. While most often referenced in relation to the bond market, rates are also a key input in traditional equity valuation models, which incorporate market interest rates to determine the appropriate rate to discount future cash flows. Interest rates are an essential element in bond pricing and the yield that investors require to own a particular fixed-income security. Since hitting an all-time low in 2020, interest rates increased in 2021 and have continued that climb higher thus far in 2022. This has put pressure on fixed incomes and certain areas of the equity market, which has led to stress in certain areas of the stock market, such as growth stocks, which can be sensitive to interest rate shocks. With that in mind, let’s examine why rates have been moving up, and whether this should be a cause for concern for PepsiCo employees.
MORE AGGRESSIVE FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already raised interest rates by 75 basis points this year. A 25 basis point hike in March followed by a 50 basis point hike in May. The Fed is currently expected to hike rates by 50 basis points in both the June and July meetings and will continue to hike through the better part of 2022. With inflation running hot and the job market showing strength, the fact that the Fed is finally moving away from zero shows confidence in the health of the job market. But the speed with which interest rates are expected to go up underscores its concern about the soaring cost of living. Americans living in areas like California or New York will experience this policy shift through higher borrowing costs: No longer will it be insanely cheap to take out mortgages or car loans and this along with higher inflation may lead to less investment in the market and more spending on needs, which is a main reason for market volatility, and important for PepsiCo employees and retirees to keep in mind.
INFLATION CONCERNS
Inflation is also a primary determinant of long-term interest rates. Rising inflation has the potential to eat away at fixed-income returns, so naturally, inflation expectations are a component of the yield that investors require to own fixed income. Put simply, inflation is a result of too much money chasing too few goods, and there are concerns that the increase in the level of money in circulation may lead to this. The extraordinary level of fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place to combat the economic damage of Coronavirus caused a significant increase in the M2 money supply. As a result, we are currently seeing this increase in the level of money in circulation translate to a pickup in consumer spending, but also elevated inflation.
RISKS OF A RECESSION
Now that the pandemic has started to recede, the Fed has once again started to raise short-
term interest rates. This policy change has caused market volatility to spike for the three
major reasons to the right.
Today as the Fed begins to aggressively hike interest rates, market participants worry we may endure a period of high inflation alongside weakening economic growth — otherwise known as stagflation.
This environment is another example of why we believe in and suggest to our clients from PepsiCo that staying diversified is the best way to insulate portfolios from being too exposed to one risk factor.
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Economic Definitions
M2 Money Supply: The M2 Money Supply, also referred to as “M2” or “Money Stock,” measures the amount of currency in circulation. M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as less liquid money, such as saving bank accounts.
What are the key steps an employee needs to take to prepare for retirement from PepsiCo, and how do these steps ensure that they maximize their benefits and entitlements?
Preparing for Retirement: Employees preparing for retirement from PepsiCo need to understand their retirement benefits, estimate their financial needs, and officially inform PepsiCo of their decision to retire. These steps are vital to ensure they maximize their benefits, including pensions, 401(k) plans, and retiree healthcare. The PepsiCo Savings and Retirement Center at Fidelity helps guide employees through this process, ensuring they make well-informed decisions(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
In what ways can PepsiCo employees navigate the complexities of their pension options, and what considerations should they have in mind when deciding between a lump sum and annuity?
Navigating Pension Options: PepsiCo employees can choose between a lump sum or an annuity for their pension benefits. When deciding, they should consider personal circumstances, such as life expectancy and financial needs. Employees can use the NetBenefits platform to estimate pension values at different retirement dates and consult financial counselors through Healthy Money for personalized advice(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
How does the PepsiCo Retiree Health Care Program function after retirement, and what criteria must be met for an employee to effectively enroll and maintain this coverage?
Retiree Health Care Program: PepsiCo offers a Retiree Health Care Program available until employees reach age 65, after which coverage transitions to the Via Benefits marketplace. Employees must actively enroll within 31 days of retirement to maintain coverage, or defer enrollment if preferred. The Retiree Health Care Contribution Estimator helps estimate future costs(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…)(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
How do the Automatic Retirement Contributions (ARC) at PepsiCo enhance an employee's retirement savings strategy, and what options do employees have to manage their ARC investments?
Automatic Retirement Contributions (ARC): Employees who receive ARC can manage their investments through NetBenefits. These contributions are automatically added to their retirement savings, enhancing long-term financial security. Employees can review and adjust their investment options to align with their retirement strategy(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
For employees aging 50 and over, what catch-up contribution options does PepsiCo provide to help with their 401(k) savings, and how can they take advantage of these benefits in their retirement planning?
Catch-Up Contributions: PepsiCo employees aged 50 and above can contribute additional amounts to their 401(k) plans under the catch-up contribution option. This benefit allows employees to boost their retirement savings, helping them prepare more effectively for retirement(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
What resources are available through PepsiCo for employees looking to calculate their retirement expenses, and how do these tools help in setting realistic financial goals for retirement?
Retirement Expense Calculators: PepsiCo provides tools like the Fidelity Planning & Guidance Center, which helps employees estimate retirement expenses. This tool includes health care costs, mortgage payments, and other potential retirement expenses, enabling employees to set realistic financial goals(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
How should employees at PepsiCo approach Social Security benefits when planning for retirement, and what role does the company play in facilitating their understanding of these benefits?
Social Security Benefits: Employees approaching retirement should consider when to start Social Security benefits. PepsiCo provides guidance through Healthy Money, helping employees understand how Social Security fits into their overall retirement strategy(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
What impact does health care coverage have on retired employees' finances, and how can PepsiCo retirees effectively use the Retiree Health Care Contribution Estimator to prepare for future health costs?
Retiree Health Care Contribution Estimator: Health care can significantly impact a retiree's budget. The Retiree Health Care Contribution Estimator is a tool PepsiCo retirees can use to prepare for future health costs. It helps employees estimate their contributions and explore different plan options to manage their post-retirement health care expenses(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
How can employees get in touch with the appropriate resources to learn more about PepsiCo’s retirement benefits, and what specific contact information should they keep handy during this process?
Contact Information: To learn more about PepsiCo's retirement benefits, employees should contact the PepsiCo Savings and Retirement Center at Fidelity at 1-800-632-2014. Additionally, they can access resources on NetBenefits or consult Healthy Money counselors for personalized financial guidance(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
What are the implications of interest rate fluctuations on pension benefit calculations at PepsiCo, and how should employees factor these rates into their retirement planning decisions? These questions encourage a comprehensive understanding of the various aspects of retirement planning specific to PepsiCo, as well as consideration for personal financial management.
Interest Rate Fluctuations and Pension Calculations: PepsiCo employees considering a lump sum pension payout should be aware that lump sum values are inversely related to interest rates. A higher interest rate results in a lower lump sum payout, so employees should monitor interest rate trends when planning their pension distribution(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…)(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
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