Interest rates are a key driver of most financial assets. While most often referenced in relation to the bond market, rates are also a key input in traditional equity valuation models, which incorporate market interest rates to determine the appropriate rate to discount future cash flows. Interest rates are an essential element in bond pricing and the yield that investors require to own a particular fixed-income security. Since hitting an all-time low in 2020, interest rates increased in 2021 and have continued that climb higher thus far in 2022. This has put pressure on fixed incomes and certain areas of the equity market, which has led to stress in certain areas of the stock market, such as growth stocks, which can be sensitive to interest rate shocks. With that in mind, let’s examine why rates have been moving up, and whether this should be a cause for concern for Cummins Inc employees.
MORE AGGRESSIVE FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already raised interest rates by 75 basis points this year. A 25 basis point hike in March followed by a 50 basis point hike in May. The Fed is currently expected to hike rates by 50 basis points in both the June and July meetings and will continue to hike through the better part of 2022. With inflation running hot and the job market showing strength, the fact that the Fed is finally moving away from zero shows confidence in the health of the job market. But the speed with which interest rates are expected to go up underscores its concern about the soaring cost of living. Americans living in areas like California or New York will experience this policy shift through higher borrowing costs: No longer will it be insanely cheap to take out mortgages or car loans and this along with higher inflation may lead to less investment in the market and more spending on needs, which is a main reason for market volatility, and important for Cummins Inc employees and retirees to keep in mind.
INFLATION CONCERNS
Inflation is also a primary determinant of long-term interest rates. Rising inflation has the potential to eat away at fixed-income returns, so naturally, inflation expectations are a component of the yield that investors require to own fixed income. Put simply, inflation is a result of too much money chasing too few goods, and there are concerns that the increase in the level of money in circulation may lead to this. The extraordinary level of fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place to combat the economic damage of Coronavirus caused a significant increase in the M2 money supply. As a result, we are currently seeing this increase in the level of money in circulation translate to a pickup in consumer spending, but also elevated inflation.
RISKS OF A RECESSION
Now that the pandemic has started to recede, the Fed has once again started to raise short-
term interest rates. This policy change has caused market volatility to spike for the three
major reasons to the right.
Today as the Fed begins to aggressively hike interest rates, market participants worry we may endure a period of high inflation alongside weakening economic growth — otherwise known as stagflation.
This environment is another example of why we believe in and suggest to our clients from Cummins Inc that staying diversified is the best way to insulate portfolios from being too exposed to one risk factor.
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Economic Definitions
M2 Money Supply: The M2 Money Supply, also referred to as “M2” or “Money Stock,” measures the amount of currency in circulation. M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as less liquid money, such as saving bank accounts.
How does Cummins determine eligibility for participation in the Cummins Pension Plan, and what are the implications for employees who temporarily leave the workforce? This inquiry should delve into the specific criteria that define an eligible employee, such as citizenship requirements and exclusions, as well as the continuation of benefits and service credit during approved leaves or breaks in service at Cummins. It would also explore the complexities surrounding vesting and how service prior to a break is credited upon re-employment at Cummins.
Eligibility and Participation in the Cummins Pension Plan: Eligibility for the Cummins Pension Plan requires being an active employee, not participating in another Cummins defined benefit pension plan, and meeting certain citizenship or residency criteria. During approved leaves of absence, employees continue to accrue service credits, ensuring continuous growth in their pension benefits. Notably, vesting occurs after three years of service, securing the employee's entitlement to pension benefits upon leaving the company. The plan handles breaks in service by allowing reemployment within 12 months to count towards vesting and benefit calculations, safeguarding employee benefits against temporary disruptions in their career with Cummins.
What are the potential benefits and limitations of the forms of distribution available under the Cummins Pension Plan, and how should employees prepare for their pension benefit election? This question requires an analysis of various forms of distributions, such as lump sums versus annuities, highlighting the financial implications of each choice, particularly in relation to the IRS rules for 2024 regarding tax treatment. Employees should also consider how their family structure (e.g., marital status, dependents) may influence their decisions when electing a distribution method.
Distribution Forms and Tax Considerations: The Cummins Pension Plan offers various distribution forms, including lump sums and annuities, each with distinct tax implications under IRS rules for 2024. Employees must consider their family structure and tax status when choosing a distribution form, as these factors influence the tax treatment and financial outcome of their pension benefits. The plan provides clear guidelines on these options, ensuring employees can make informed decisions that align with their personal and financial circumstances.
In what ways do pay credits and interest credits accrue within the Cummins Pension Plan, and how can employees gauge their potential retirement benefits over time? This question will focus on the specifics of how pay credits are calculated based on an employee's compensation and service at Cummins, as well as the impact of interest credits on the total account balance and long-term retirement planning. It will also examine how employees can track these credits through the Cummins retirement resources.
Accrual of Pay and Interest Credits: The pension benefits at Cummins accrue through pay credits based on compensation and service, along with interest credits. Employees can monitor their accumulating benefits through the Cummins retirement resources, offering transparency and planning advantages. This structured accrual method supports employees in projecting their future pension benefits and making informed decisions about their retirement timing and financial needs.
How does Cummins ensure compliance with ERISA and other regulatory standards in the management of the Cummins Pension Plan, and what rights do employees have under these regulations? This query should explore Cummins' obligations as a fiduciary in managing employee benefits and highlight the key rights of plan participants. The discussion should include access to plan documents, the process for filing claims, and the significance of ERISA protections for employees retired from Cummins.
Regulatory Compliance and Employee Rights: Cummins diligently adheres to ERISA standards in managing the pension plan, emphasizing fiduciary responsibility and ensuring participants' rights are upheld. Employees have rights to access plan documents, participate in claims and appeals processes, and are protected under ERISA from any plan-related discrimination. This regulatory compliance not only secures the integrity of their pension benefits but also reinforces the legal framework protecting participant rights.
What role does the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) play in safeguarding the retirement benefits of Cummins employees, and how does this affect the perception of the plan's reliability? This question would examine the insurance coverage provided by the PBGC, what types of benefits are guaranteed, and under what circumstances benefits may not be fully covered. Employees might analyze how this federal insurance impacts their confidence in the plan, especially in light of changing economic conditions.
Role of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC): The PBGC insures the pension benefits under the Cummins Plan, providing a safety net that enhances the reliability of these benefits. Employees covered by the plan can gain confidence in the security of their pensions, knowing that even in the face of potential plan termination, the PBGC guarantees the core benefits, subject to certain legal limits and conditions.
How does the Cummins Pension Plan interface with employees' Social Security benefits, and what should retirees consider when planning for a sustainable retirement income? This inquiry will look at the coordination of benefits under the Cummins plan with Social Security, examining how pension income might influence Social Security calculations. It would require discussions on the timing of retirement elections and how they align with Social Security claims.
Interaction with Social Security Benefits: The Cummins Pension Plan is designed to integrate smoothly with Social Security benefits, offering provisions that help plan participants optimize their total retirement income. Understanding this interaction allows employees to strategically plan their retirement age and benefit commencement, maximizing their financial stability in later life.
What are the specific procedures and deadlines that Cummins employees should follow to successfully elect a distribution from the Cummins Pension Plan upon retirement? This question will necessitate a detailed look at the steps involved in initiating a benefit distribution, including the importance of spousal consent, the timing of application submissions, and any documentation that may be required. Understanding these processes can significantly affect the financial outcomes for retirees.
Procedures and Deadlines for Electing Pension Distribution: The Cummins Pension Plan outlines specific procedures and deadlines for electing a distribution upon retirement, emphasizing the importance of timely and informed decision-making. By understanding these processes, employees can avoid delays and ensure that they receive their pension benefits in the manner that best suits their post-retirement financial plans.
What are the implications of choosing to defer pension benefits and how does the Cummins Plan accommodate employees who opt not to start their benefits at the normal retirement date? This inquiry could address the potential financial consequences of deferring benefits, including eligibility requirements for such deferral and how it aligns with IRS regulations. Employees should critically evaluate their financial situations and retirement goals, weighing the allure of continued employment against starting their retirement benefits sooner.
Deferring Pension Benefits: Employees at Cummins have the option to defer their pension benefits beyond the normal retirement date, which can influence the financial value of their benefits. The plan provides guidelines on how deferral impacts benefit calculations and distributions, assisting employees in making decisions that align with their long-term financial goals.
How can Cummins employees designating beneficiaries ensure that their wishes are respected concerning death benefits, particularly in light of recent changes in the pension landscape? This question focuses on the options available to employees for designating beneficiaries, the process for updating these designations over time, and the specific forms that need to be completed to ensure compliance with the Cummins Pension Plan. It will also discuss the impact of state and federal laws on these designations.
Designating Beneficiaries and Ensuring Compliance: The plan stipulates clear processes for designating beneficiaries for pension benefits, ensuring that employees' wishes are respected and legally documented. This is crucial for planning and securing financial provisions for survivors, reflecting the plan's comprehensive approach to retirement benefits.
How can Cummins employees contact the Cummins Retirement Benefits Service Center to obtain more information about the Cummins Pension Plan and related retirement processes? This question emphasizes the various channels through which employees can reach out to the service center, the types of queries they can address regarding the Cummins Pension Plan, and the resources available online to assist with pension-related inquiries. Employees are encouraged to take advantage of these resources to make informed decisions regarding their retirement planning.
Accessing Information and Assistance: Cummins provides multiple channels for employees to access information and assistance regarding their pension plan, including online resources and a dedicated service center. This accessibility ensures that employees can obtain detailed information and personalized support, enabling them to navigate their pension benefits effectively.